Why Being Delusional is a Superpower
The Trap of Egocentric Bias
When couples are asked to estimate how much of the
housework they do, the combined total is almost always over 100%.
The same phenomenon occurs when authors
are asked what percentage of the work they personally did
on a multi-author paper,
or when couples estimate what fraction of their fights they start.
This happens because of something called egocentric bias.
You vividly experience and remember everything you do,
but not everything everyone else does.
Naturally, you overestimate your own contributions
and underestimate others’.
This bias ultimately leads us to underestimate the influence
of external factors on our lives,
such as the massive role luck plays in our success.
The Compounding Effect of Early Advantages
If you ask a professional hockey player how they reached the pros,
they will likely mention their hard work, determination,
great coaches, and early morning practices.
However, they probably won’t acknowledge
how lucky they were to be born in January.
In many years, 40% of hockey players selected into top-tier
leagues are born in the first quarter of the year,
compared to just 10% in the fourth quarter.
An early birthday can make you up to four times as likely
to be a pro hockey player.
This disparity exists because the cutoff date for kids’
hockey leagues is typically January 1st.
Those born in the first part of the year are slightly older, bigger,
and faster than their peers.
Because they show more promise,
they are given more time on the ice, enter more tournaments,
and receive better coaching.
These advantages compound year after year
until the pros are heavily skewed toward early birthdays.
The Importance of Circumstances
The most significant bit of luck many of us enjoy is
being born into a prosperous country.
Around half the variance in income received by people
around the world is explained by their country of residence
and that country’s income distribution.
If you were born in a country with an incredibly low gross
national income, it does not matter how smart
or hardworking you are—you are highly unlikely
to earn much as an adult.
Skill vs. Luck
Many people get offended when you point out how big
a role chance plays in their success.
People often think success has to be strictly either skill or luck,
but the truth is you need both.
- When looking at eight track and field world records, all the athletes were obviously world-class and dedicated, yet seven out of eight had a tailwind when they set their records. They had the skill to win a gold medal, but setting the world record required a bit of luck as well.
- The importance of luck increases the greater the number of applicants applying for just a few spaces. In 2017, NASA selected only 11 astronauts from over 18,300 applicants.
- If you run a simulated selection model where astronauts are chosen mostly based on skill and hard work, but luck accounts for just 5% of the outcome, the results are staggering. Even with luck accounting for only 5%, 9 or 10 of the 11 applicants selected would have been completely different if luck played no role at all.
When competition is fierce, being talented
and hardworking is important,
but it is not enough to guarantee success.
You also need to catch a break.
The Useful Delusion of Total Control
We are largely oblivious to the fortunate events that support
our success because, by definition, luck is not something we did.
However, downplaying the importance of chance events
may actually improve your probability of success.
If you perceive an outcome to be highly uncertain,
you are less likely to invest effort into it,
which further decreases your chances of success.
Therefore, it is a highly useful delusion to
believe you are in full control of your destiny.
How Overlooking Luck Justifies Inequality
Overlooking your lucky breaks makes it much easier to justify
your place in society.
If you have a lot of wealth or power,
chalking it up entirely to your own intelligence, effort,
and perseverance makes it easier to accept inequality.
- In one experiment, participants were put in groups of three to solve a problem, and one person was randomly designated the team leader. When the experimenter returned with four cookies for the group of three, the extra cookie almost always went to the randomly assigned team leader, even though they had no special aptitude or extra responsibilities. Once you achieve a certain status, it feels natural to believe you deserve it.
- In another study, people who credited their recent successes to their own personal attributes ended up donating 25% less money to a charity than those who credited external factors beyond their control.
People in positions of power, like business leaders and politicians,
often live in a form of survivor bias.
They have worked hard and ultimately succeeded, so to them,
the world appears fair and actively rewards hard work.
What they lack is the experience of all the people
who have worked hard and failed.
This leads them to the natural conclusion that less successful people
must just be less talented or lazy.
This perspective makes them less inclined to be generous,
even though they are the ones who set
the rules for how society operates.
The Benefits of Acknowledging Good Fortune
Acknowledging our fortunate circumstances brings us more
in line with reality, and it actually makes us more likable.
When people read a transcript of an interview with
a successful entrepreneur, they judged the entrepreneur as kinder
and a better potential friend when he admitted
that luck played a significant role in his success.
Raising our awareness of fortunate events also makes
us much happier because it allows us to deeply feel gratitude.
The Paradoxical Advice for Success
If you want to be successful in this world,
the best advice is a bit paradoxical:
- First: You must fully believe that you are in complete control of your destiny, and that your success comes down entirely to your own talent and hard work.
- Second: You must absolutely know that this is not actually true for you or anyone else.
If you do achieve success, you must remember that luck played
a significant role.
Given your good fortune,
you should do everything you can to increase the luck of others.
