How to Predict a Divorce with 91% Accuracy

John Gottman, a world-renowned marriage counselor,

has spent his entire career studying marriages.

His research claims that he can predict

whether a couple will get divorced with a 91% accuracy rate

within the first 10 minutes of meeting them,

simply by observing signs of “fruitless fighting.”

In this article, we explore the specific signs that,

according to scientific proof, indicate a marriage is in trouble.

1. Harsh Startup

A “harsh startup” refers to beginning a conversation abruptly, negatively, and with a hostile attitude.

The Approach: Instead of a gentle “We need to talk,” it manifests as “You did it again.”

The Impact: This immediately sets a tone of conflict and aggression, making productive communication nearly impossible from the outset.

2. The Four Horsemen

Gottman identifies four specific behaviors, known as the “Four Horsemen,” that signal marital distress:

Defensiveness: Refusing to accept responsibility and defending oneself against perceived attacks.

Contempt: Treating the partner with disrespect or mockery (often considered the most destructive).
Criticism: Attacking the partner’s character rather than addressing a specific behavior.
Stonewalling: One person shuts down and stops responding. This looks like looking out the window, giving non-committal answers (“Yeah,” “Mhm,” “Okay”), or appearing not to care, even though they are physically present.

3. Flooding

Flooding is closely related to the Four Horsemen. It occurs when a person is overwhelmed by so many feelings that they cannot speak them.

The Experience: It is not a lack of feeling, but an excess of it. They have so many emotions rushing in at once that they cannot pick one to articulate.
The Danger: This state is dangerous because it often leads directly to physiological distress and stonewalling.

4. Physiological Distress

If conflict and anger in a marriage go unresolved for a long time, the body begins to react physically.

Symptoms: This can manifest as ulcers, backaches, neck pain, or increased drinking.
Failing from the Inside: The stress of the relationship starts causing the body to fail from the inside out.

5. Bad Memories

When a relationship is in distress, partners begin to interpret history negatively.

Rewriting the Past: They forget the good times and only remember the negative aspects.
Example: Instead of remembering the joy of their wedding, they might focus on a negative detail, like, “Yeah, I remember our wedding… he was late. He’s still late today.” This reinterpretation of the past is a bad sign for the future.

6. Failed Repair Attempts

Fighting in a marriage is not necessarily a problem; even good marriages fight. The critical factor is the ability to repair the disconnect.

Repairing: This can be as simple as coming to a common understanding or communicating that you are on the same side. You must have the ability to “get back on the beam.”
The Reality of Conflict: Gottman discovered that couples spend most of their marriage fighting about the same issues (money, in-laws, child-rearing) over and over again. You may never fully agree, but you must find a way to live with the differences.

The Warning: If you cannot repair the damage after a fight, the marriage is in critical danger.

Summary

Ultimately, people fight because they want to be connected. In psychology, “the thing is never the thing.” You might think you are fighting about money or parents, but you are actually fighting to feel reconnected. Once connection is re-established, the specific subject of the argument often becomes less important. However, if these warning signs—harsh startups, the Four Horsemen, flooding, physiological distress, bad memories, and failed repairs—are present, it indicates the relationship is